Transparency
Methodology and data sources
What Trump Said is a timestamped market-reaction database. It is designed to answer a narrow question: what did major liquid markets do around the time a public statement appeared?
How an event becomes a published analysis
1. Capture and verify the statement
We record the published text, timestamp, source name, and source URL. A statement cannot qualify for search indexing without a traceable source and enough original context to understand the claim.
2. Classify the subject and importance
Each event is grouped into a policy category such as tariffs, trade, personnel, judicial affairs, or the Middle East. Importance is an editorial ranking of potential market relevance, not a prediction of direction.
3. Observe several liquid markets
We compare SPY, Bitcoin, gold, U.S. Treasury exposure, and the U.S. dollar index around the event timestamp. Multiple assets help show whether a reaction was broad, defensive, inflation-related, or specific to risk appetite.
4. Compare consistent time windows
Price snapshots cover short and longer windows around publication, including five minutes, fifteen minutes, one hour, and one day when reliable observations are available. The same event may therefore show an initial reaction and a later reversal.
5. Apply a stricter publication threshold
The priority sitemap contains at most 300 event pages. A page needs a source, at least 180 characters of original context, reliable non-zero market data, and either exceptional importance or an absolute measured move of at least 5%. Other records remain available for research but are not promoted for indexing.
What the numbers do not prove
A price change near a statement is correlation, not automatic proof of causation. Economic releases, earnings, central-bank news, geopolitical developments, and normal volatility can overlap the same window. We show timestamps and confidence labels so readers can evaluate that context instead of presenting a move as certain cause and effect.
Sources and corrections
Statement records link to their available primary or archival source. Market observations currently use Yahoo Finance price data. Data can be delayed, revised, or unavailable outside an asset's trading hours. Records that lack a usable source, sufficient context, or reliable market observation are excluded from the priority index.
This project is for informational and research purposes only and is not investment advice. Start with the curated topic collections or browse the complete archive.